Misdirection is the main weapon of the magician. "Focus over there while I perform a sleight of hand and produce a rabbit out of the hat here". This, unfortunately, seems to be what has happened to the whole nation of South Africa. Or to be more precise, to the governing party, the government, the media, commentators and the intelligentsia. Surprisingly, or perhaps not so surprisingly, the "communists" have also been taken in.
I refer here to the collective sigh of relief that took place nationally when Standard & Poor's left South Africa's credit rating unchanged after there had been fear that there would be a downgrade. The ANC and the government pulled out all the stops to avoid this and have seemingly succeeded. There is a threat, however, that a downgrade is still possible at the next review later in the year. The expectation, therefore, is that everything is going to focus on avoiding this. Any action that deviates from this will be seen as betrayal, akin to high treason.
Thus, has begun a never ending series of relays aimed at avoiding a downgrade, with no regard to the long-term policy direction and targets of the governing party and the needs of the people.
It began with AGOA. The government had taken a stance in the interest of South Africa, but the US flexed its muscle and enlisted the media and the opposition. Government resistance immediately crumbled for fear of being accused of destroying the economy.
In light of all this, what happened to BRICS and the new direction of looking East? BRICS was meant as a kind of showing the middle finger to the Bretton Woods institutions and their economic and political order. It appears BRICS has been rendered impotent even before it can have an impact. With the exception of India, all the BRICS economies are experiencing shocks of varying degrees. Recession and impeachment in Brazil, sanctions and economic contraction in Russia, an economic slowdown and a desire to be liked and accepted by the West in China, and a South Africa who's economy is in the doldrums and plagued by a series of political and economic missteps.
From here on it is hard to imagine South Africa adopting any truly independent economic and political path.
