Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

Every decision or action has a consequence, intended or unintended.

Imperfect knowledge is a near certainty, which is why future outcomes can't be predicted fully. That is why we assign probabilities. Some information and knowledge deficiencies are known, and yet others are not. Only in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences (with existing knowledge) can outcomes be known with near certainty.

Imperfect knowledge creates arbitrage opportunities...or disasters. Good leaders and managers try to maximise the former and minimise the latter. No use pleading ignorance when things go wrong.

Politicians, citizens and business people can't abdicate their responsibility either. They become beneficiaries of pleasant outcomes when things go right, or suffer disappointment and loss when things go wrong. Their actions, therefore, equally matter but they are also taken in the face of imperfect knowledge.

The sooner we all accept, therefore, that we can never predict any future with certainty the better. This means current outcomes couldn't have been predicted with 100% certainty or couldn't have been predicted at all, nor can future outcomes, whichever choices are made today. No use pretending otherwise.

Embracing failure...

Red Card for some South Africans (including journalists & commentators). Since when is it wrong to have ambition and the cojones to go with it?

Many of us have 'armchair' ambition and are too timid to act. Why, then, deride Tokyo Sexwale for his chutzpah? To succeed, you have to embrace the possibility of failure. We should be celebrating & applauding one of our own for trying. Countless times South Africans complain about our under-representation in continental & international bodies, and yet those few who dare to throw their hats in the ring are not supported, and when they meet difficulties & even fail, we express glee.

How are our kids going to be inspired when we label a person with courage to try a "Mampara"?

In Silicon Valley, where failing is not only encouraged but celebrated, the motto is "Fail often, and fail fast." Perhaps we would be more successful as a nation if we embrace such a culture.

Teaching innovation early

Government agencies like the Technology Innovation Agency (TIA) and The Innovation Hub (TIH) are doing good work fostering innovation in our entrepreneurs, especially young people.

For the past two days I was part of a TIA facilitation and mentorship workshop to some amazing young graduates in Durban. They had various backgrounds in IT, chemistry, electrical engineering, etc. and developed some interesting and implementable ideas.

TIA is to be commended. Unfortunately, there's not enough of it. And it should be offered at universities before they graduate.

Indeed, why not introduce this at high school level? If we are to produce a nation of winners we need to re-engineer our education to inculcate innovation and risk taking at an early age. Even if they go on to become employees they will bring their entrepreneurial and innovation skills to their organisations and help create great companies.

We constantly lament about our country going down. Well, this is one practical way to prevent this. Enough talk and more doing.