11 April 2016

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

Every decision or action has a consequence, intended or unintended.

Imperfect knowledge is a near certainty, which is why future outcomes can't be predicted fully. That is why we assign probabilities. Some information and knowledge deficiencies are known, and yet others are not. Only in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences (with existing knowledge) can outcomes be known with near certainty.

Imperfect knowledge creates arbitrage opportunities...or disasters. Good leaders and managers try to maximise the former and minimise the latter. No use pleading ignorance when things go wrong.

Politicians, citizens and business people can't abdicate their responsibility either. They become beneficiaries of pleasant outcomes when things go right, or suffer disappointment and loss when things go wrong. Their actions, therefore, equally matter but they are also taken in the face of imperfect knowledge.

The sooner we all accept, therefore, that we can never predict any future with certainty the better. This means current outcomes couldn't have been predicted with 100% certainty or couldn't have been predicted at all, nor can future outcomes, whichever choices are made today. No use pretending otherwise.

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