24 June 2020

South African Airways and the Sunk-cost fallacy

Sunk costs are like spilled milk: they are past and irreversible. Because they are bygones, they can’t be affected by the decision to approve or reject the new financing being required to recapitalise or ‘save’ SAA.

Those who argue that it is foolish to abandon SAA because of past monies invested are wrong. So are those who argue that because of those past monies on which no satisfactory return has been generated and not likely to be generated, therefore no new investment ought to be made.

Both sides are guilty of the sunk-cost fallacy. Past investments are irrecoverable and are therefore irrelevant. The decision on whether or not to approve new investments ought to be made on the basis of fresh appraisals and whether or not those appraisals indicate potential positive returns. It is as simple as that.

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