Picture this. Two accomplices are arrested and put into two different interrogation rooms. The skilled interrogators play each prisoner against the other, variously dangling a carrot or brandishing a stick to each in turn. Now, most likely the prisoners have a pact, which they decided on before committing their illegal act, that once arrested they should stick together no matter what. But, as the interrogation drags on, doubts in each prisoner’s mind emerges as to whether her or his accomplice will maintain the pact. Each starts to wonder, should I cooperate with the police because my accomplice is likely to rat me out anyway, or should I resist and stick with the pact because my accomplice will do the exact same thing? In game theory, this dilemma is known as The Prisoners’ Dilemma.
Political organisations that are dominated by factions face a similar dilemma. Each faction wonders, should we rat the other faction out to the members and the electorate, or is it in our factional and collective interest to maintain unity at all costs because we believe that is what the other factions will do too? In some instances, factions will initially choose the latter, but over time ‘self-interest’ takes over and they ‘rat’ the other faction/s out.
You saw this in the UK Labour Party during the movement that swept Jeremy Corbyn to power, and in both parties during the whole Brexit scenario. You saw it in the US GOP with the Tea Party and the Trump sweep to power, and you see it now within the GOP between Pro Trumpers and Never Trumpers, and within the Democratic Party between the so-called progressives led by “The Squad” and the so-called moderates. You saw it in South Africa several times within ANC factional battles, and you see it now with the goings-on at the State Capture Commission and the factional fight-to-the-death.
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