Miracles

They say you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning the lotto. Or seeing a miracle.

To be sure, there's nothing wrong with playing the lotto or expecting and praying for a miracle.

There's everything wrong with hitching all your plans, or those of your organisation, or the whole country, on this.

Alternative democratic traditions

In the US presidential system, the incoming administration can (and does, except perhaps if it’s a continuation of a Democratic or Republican governance) implement wholesale personnel and policy changes, subject only to the constitution and the oversight of Congress. Clear, simple, well-known, longstanding tradition.

In the UK, there is a persistent professional civil service, which generally endures and survives changes of government. It provides continuity, assurance, stability and implements the policies of the government of the day. Clear, simple, well-known, longstanding tradition.

And then there is a third, muddled, alternative. A bit of a cross between the two traditions, where whim, disguised settling of scores and jobs for pals tend to rule. Why not opt for one or the other tradition and be open about it?

Zimbabwe should just use the Rand

Zimbabwe’s economy is not as strong as it was many years ago. It has lurched from one crisis to another, without a credible solution in sight.

Zimbabwe’s biggest problem is around the currency and runaway inflation. Currency solution after currency solution has failed. It’s all about credibility and trust, and the simplest solution seems unpalatable to the authorities. Zimbabwe’s ruling elite should swallow its collective pride and join the Common Monetary Area. This is the economic reality. And while at it, the country should also join the Southern African Customs Union. After all, South Africa is Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner and, most likely, remittances from Zimbabweans living and working in South Africa are probably the biggest external transfers

These two acts would restore credibility and stabilise the economy. Sure, the country would economically be beholden to South Africa, but in many ways it is even now, with limited benefits

Perverse economics

In the United States, where the economy is doing relatively well by current global measures, a conservative president, Donald Trump, is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and re-introduce Quantitative Easing (QE). This, because he feels the current monetary policy stance of the Fed is putting brakes on the economy.

In South Africa, where the economy is performing very poorly by many measures: extremely high unemployment, economic growth anemic, high levels of poverty, etc. the progressive president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is reluctant to apply pressure or persuasion on the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates. This, because of a fear that financial markets will perceive this as interference with the mandate of the SARB.

At a pure economic level, President Trump is correct and President Ramaphosa wrong and weak. The South African economy would do with a boost to consumption spending and investment, and the current misguided monetary policy stance of the SARB is putting a constraint on both.

False economy (saving)

Managers at borders employ fewer lines at passport control to achieve personnel savings. What they don't realise is the cost in tourists who don't return can far outweigh any benefits in short-term savings for the economy.

It's the same with supermarket cash out lines, or bank teller deployment. The unpleasant experience deters future and current customers and the loss in potential future earnings outweighs the immediate cost saving.

Gazelles and lions...

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up

It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed

Every morning, a lion wakes up

It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death

It doesn’t matter whether you are a lion or gazelle

When the sun comes up, you better start running

African Proverb.

If no one heard about it

If no one heard about it, did it really happen?

Social validation drives the adoption and use of social media. Suddenly we have a way to be validated by our friends (often, also by complete strangers), all at once, on our activities and achievements. Humble brags are the order of the day.

If I don't share it, did I really get on that plane? Did I really visit that exotic resort, or eat that sumptuous meal? Was my child really awarded that degree, or get that promotion?

In the search for social validation, we sometimes go overboard. There are people whose lives are lived virtually entirely on social media, with no privacy at all, sharing even the most trivial and boring bits about their lives.