Misdirection - the West has won

The takeover of our economic policies is now complete.

Misdirection is the main weapon of the magician. "Focus over there while I perform a sleight of hand and produce a rabbit out of the hat here". This, unfortunately, seems to be what has happened to the whole nation of South Africa. Or to be more precise, to the governing party, the government, the media, commentators and the intelligentsia. Surprisingly, or perhaps not so surprisingly, the "communists" have also been taken in.

I refer here to the collective sigh of relief that took place nationally when Standard & Poor's left South Africa's credit rating unchanged after there had been fear that there would be a downgrade. The ANC and the government pulled out all the stops to avoid this and have seemingly succeeded. There is a threat, however, that a downgrade is still possible at the next review later in the year. The expectation, therefore, is that everything is going to focus on avoiding this. Any action that deviates from this will be seen as betrayal, akin to high treason.

Thus, has begun a never ending series of relays aimed at avoiding a downgrade, with no regard to the long-term policy direction and targets of the governing party and the needs of the people.

It began with AGOA. The government had taken a stance in the interest of South Africa, but the US flexed its muscle and enlisted the media and the opposition. Government resistance immediately crumbled for fear of being accused of destroying the economy.

In light of all this, what happened to BRICS and the new direction of looking East? BRICS was meant as a kind of showing the middle finger to the Bretton Woods institutions and their economic and political order. It appears BRICS has been rendered impotent even before it can have an impact. With the exception of India, all the BRICS economies are experiencing shocks of varying degrees. Recession and impeachment in Brazil, sanctions and economic contraction in Russia, an economic slowdown and a desire to be liked and accepted by the West in China, and a South Africa who's economy is in the doldrums and plagued by a series of political and economic missteps.

From here on it is hard to imagine South Africa adopting any truly independent economic and political path.

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Known unknowns and unknown unknowns

Every decision or action has a consequence, intended or unintended.

Imperfect knowledge is a near certainty, which is why future outcomes can't be predicted fully. That is why we assign probabilities. Some information and knowledge deficiencies are known, and yet others are not. Only in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences (with existing knowledge) can outcomes be known with near certainty.

Imperfect knowledge creates arbitrage opportunities...or disasters. Good leaders and managers try to maximise the former and minimise the latter. No use pleading ignorance when things go wrong.

Politicians, citizens and business people can't abdicate their responsibility either. They become beneficiaries of pleasant outcomes when things go right, or suffer disappointment and loss when things go wrong. Their actions, therefore, equally matter but they are also taken in the face of imperfect knowledge.

The sooner we all accept, therefore, that we can never predict any future with certainty the better. This means current outcomes couldn't have been predicted with 100% certainty or couldn't have been predicted at all, nor can future outcomes, whichever choices are made today. No use pretending otherwise.

Embracing failure...

Red Card for some South Africans (including journalists & commentators). Since when is it wrong to have ambition and the cojones to go with it?

Many of us have 'armchair' ambition and are too timid to act. Why, then, deride Tokyo Sexwale for his chutzpah? To succeed, you have to embrace the possibility of failure. We should be celebrating & applauding one of our own for trying. Countless times South Africans complain about our under-representation in continental & international bodies, and yet those few who dare to throw their hats in the ring are not supported, and when they meet difficulties & even fail, we express glee.

How are our kids going to be inspired when we label a person with courage to try a "Mampara"?

In Silicon Valley, where failing is not only encouraged but celebrated, the motto is "Fail often, and fail fast." Perhaps we would be more successful as a nation if we embrace such a culture.

Teaching innovation early

Government agencies like the Technology Innovation Agency (TIA) and The Innovation Hub (TIH) are doing good work fostering innovation in our entrepreneurs, especially young people.

For the past two days I was part of a TIA facilitation and mentorship workshop to some amazing young graduates in Durban. They had various backgrounds in IT, chemistry, electrical engineering, etc. and developed some interesting and implementable ideas.

TIA is to be commended. Unfortunately, there's not enough of it. And it should be offered at universities before they graduate.

Indeed, why not introduce this at high school level? If we are to produce a nation of winners we need to re-engineer our education to inculcate innovation and risk taking at an early age. Even if they go on to become employees they will bring their entrepreneurial and innovation skills to their organisations and help create great companies.

We constantly lament about our country going down. Well, this is one practical way to prevent this. Enough talk and more doing.

The curse of mineral riches

Do mineral riches matter at all for economic development? No, otherwise mineral deficient countries like #Singapore would be begging nations.

On the other hand, many mineral-endowed countries seem cursed to a perpetual state of underdevelopment or continually playing catch-up. Mineral riches also seemingly create lazy thinking, a thinking that fails to take cognisance of global market conditions and responding timely to changes coming over the horizon. It also engenders a thinking that depends solely on a fortuitous piece of natural luck that put a nation on top of mineral abundance.

Economic development is about making the smart choices that will propel the nation along a sustainable growth trajectory. It is also about harnessing comparative advantages, and where none seem to exist, smartly 'creating' these. 

Doubtless, mineral endowments offer a comparative advantage in a world that craves and depends on these. But this comparative advantage has to be exploited with smart strategies that are adaptable to changing global conditions. For if there is one lesson from modern economic history, it is that global conditions are always changing. This comparative advantage may not always be the same through the ages, so it is important to discern when it is time to change direction and harness or create new advantages. And mineral endowments are not forever...

Crying over the spilt milk of changing global conditions that mean your minerals may no longer be as valuable as they were yesterday is a sign of lack of forward planning, as are empty barns in times of drought.

Legalise sex work

And while at it, legalise marijuana too.

The main reason sex work is illegal in South Africa, a country with a progressive, secular constitution that recognises same sex partnerships, is an appeasement to the religious lobby. Interestingly, though, sections of these self-same religious groups have reduced their sensitivity towards same sex relationships and they now even ordain gay priests. Why then still leave sex work out in the cold?

And as far as marijuana is concerned, it seems indisputable that it has medicinal properties that are advantageous towards the treatment or amelioration of the pain of cancer sufferers. In addition, the criminalisation of marijuana use discriminates against the cultural beliefs of some indigenous South Africans, which surely violates the constitution.

The legalisation of both sex work and marijuana can enable the tax authorities to bring both into the tax net and generate additional revenues. And it would also free the police to focus their resources on more debilitating crimes.